Investors face another Washington deadline

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors face another Washington-imposed deadline on government spending cuts next week, but it's not generating the same level of fear as two months ago when the "fiscal cliff" loomed large.

Investors in sectors most likely to be affected by the cuts, like defense, seem untroubled that the budget talks could send stocks tumbling.

Talks on the U.S. budget crisis began again this week leading up to the March 1 deadline for the so-called sequestration when $85 billion in automatic federal spending cuts are scheduled to take effect.

"It's at this point a political hot button in Washington but a very low level investor concern," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. The fight pits President Barack Obama and fellow Democrats against congressional Republicans.

Stocks rallied in early January after a compromise temporarily avoided the fiscal cliff, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index <.spx> has risen 6.3 percent since the start of the year.

But the benchmark index lost steam this week, posting its first week of losses since the start of the year. Minutes on Wednesday from the last Federal Reserve meeting, which suggested the central bank may slow or stop its stimulus policy sooner than expected, provided the catalyst.

National elections in Italy on Sunday and Monday could also add to investor concern. Most investors expect a government headed by Pier Luigi Bersani to win and continue with reforms to tackle Italy's debt problems. However, a resurgence by former leader Silvio Berlusconi has raised doubts.

"Europe has been in the last six months less of a topic for the stock market, but the problems haven't gone away. This may bring back investor attention to that," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

OPTIONS BULLS TARGET GAINS

The spending cuts, if they go ahead, could hit the defense industry particularly hard.

Yet in the options market, bulls were targeting gains in Lockheed Martin Corp , the Pentagon's biggest supplier.

Calls on the stock far outpaced puts, suggesting that many investors anticipate the stock to move higher. Overall options volume on the stock was 2.8 times the daily average with 17,000 calls and 3,360 puts traded, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert.

"The upside call buying in Lockheed solidifies the idea that option investors are not pricing in a lot of downside risk in most defense stocks from the likely impact of sequestration," said Jared Woodard, a founder of research and advisory firm condoroptions.com in Forest, Virginia.

The stock ended up 0.6 percent at $88.12 on Friday.

If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement on reducing the U.S. budget deficit in the next few days, a sequester would include significant cuts in defense spending. Companies such as General Dynamics Corp and Smith & Wesson Holding Corp could be affected.

General Dynamics Corp shares rose 1.2 percent to $67.32 and Smith & Wesson added 4.6 percent to $9.18 on Friday.

EYES ON GDP DATA, APPLE

The latest data on fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is expected on Thursday, and some analysts predict an upward revision following trade data that showed America's deficit shrank in December to its narrowest in nearly three years.

U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, according to an earlier government estimate, but analysts said there was no reason for panic, given that consumer spending and business investment picked up.

Investors will be looking for any hints of changes in the Fed's policy of monetary easing when Fed Chairman Ben Bernake speaks before congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Shares of Apple will be watched closely next week when the company's annual stockholders' meeting is held.

On Friday, a U.S. judge handed outspoken hedge fund manager David Einhorn a victory in his battle with the iPhone maker, blocking the company from moving forward with a shareholder vote on a controversial proposal to limit the company's ability to issue preferred stock.

(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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India Ink: In Hyderabad, Anger and Frustration

Srinivas Mahesh, 28, was snacking outside his hostel near the Konark Theater in Dishknagar, his usual hangout in Hyderabad, when he heard a loud explosion Thursday evening. Not long after, he saw smoke filling up the air. Once he realized it was a bomb blast, instead of rushing back to his hostel he resolved to helping the injured.

“I saw disfigured bodies for the first time in my life,” he said. He helped three severely injured people into ambulances and took another injured man by auto to Osmania Hospital.

Mr. Mahesh, who is originally from Kurnool, came to Hyderabad two years ago to do a graduation in engineering from Ashok Institute in Dilsukhnagar. After yesterday’s blasts though, he might have to return home.

“My parents were visiting Hyderabad in 2007, when there were blasts. They had a tough time then,” he said. “After yesterday, they are convinced that this city is cursed and want me home.”

More than 24 hours after two bombs went off near the ever-crowded Dilsukhnagar bus stand, there is palpable frustration and anger in the area. N.Pradeep Reddy, 29, a chartered accountant who lives in Dilsukhnagar, heard the first blast and came to the balcony of his house. Then he saw the second explosion. Aghast, he couldn’t move for several seconds, he said.

Mr. Reddy’s family has been in Hyderabad for 10 years now, but now he is disillusioned with the charm of the city, he said. “No one cares for our lives here – not the politicians, not the media not the police,” he added.

Hyderabad has been the site of numerous explosions in recent years, including two in 2007 attacks that killed dozens of people.

Soon after Thursday’s blasts, the road in front of the Dilsukhnagar bus stand had a median dividing it into two. While traffic was allowed on one side, the other side of the road was cordoned off by the police.

“This is obstructing traffic and adding to the commotion,” said P. Sadanandam, who commutes through the road regularly. “They are not doing this for security, it is just so that the VIPs can visit the blast site and have a photo-op,” he said angrily.

Andhra Pradesh Director General of Police and other senior police officers visited the at blast site today to look for evidence.

All the shops on a two kilometer stretch on the Dilsukhnagar main road were shuttered down all day today. Some security men outside the shops said that this was not due to the bandh, or shutdown, that the Bharatiya Janata Party had called, but because the shop owners were sure that there would be no customers today. They might open on Monday, they said.

Narsing Vennala, 25, sells flowers on the main road. He is one of the only three flower vendors who reopened their shops today. A temple next door needs flowers, he said, and therefore he had to come to work.

His 18-year-old sister is so paranoid about his coming to work a day after the blasts that she keeps calling him every half-an-hour to check if he is alright.  Mr Vennala walks home at 11 p.m. every night, and he plans to do the same even today.

“Whatever had to happen, happened,” he said. “Now how long can we stay hungry and not earn because of that?”

“Bharat mata ki jai,” (Victory for mother India) was loudly shouted by a bunch of residents. They said that was their answer to those that were against peace in the country.  There was also some anti-Pakistan sloganeering.

One resident estimated that there were 500 to 600 educational institutions in Dilsukhnagar. They have offerings ranging from short-term computer courses to three-year degrees. Thousands of students, from smaller towns and neighboring districts, live in hostels around their respective institutions. Many of them were on the streets yesterday to help the injured.

While some students don’t see any option but to stay in the city, others, like Mr. Mahesh, are packing their bags.

“I have to go home, even if I don’t like to,” he said “My family will be worried every day I stay in Hyderabad.”

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Jessica Biel's Style Is 'More Confident' as a Married Woman, Says Her Stylist

Stylewatch
Style News Now

02/22/2013 at 03:00 PM ET

Gregory Pace/BEImages

Justin Timberlake has been getting lots of notice for his “Suit and Tie” style lately, but his new wife Jessica Biel has been making quite a fashionable impact herself these past few months.

And her longtime stylist and friend Estee Stanley credits a certain accessory for Biel’s noticeable confidence on the red carpet: her wedding ring.

“I definitely think any woman changes after [she gets] married,” Stanley tells PEOPLE. “I feel like she feels more secure and safe on the planet having found her partner.”

Biel, whom Stanley calls “the cutest,” says this security manifests itself in less behind-the-scenes fussing: “It’s not ‘should I do this or should I do this?’ It’s like ‘Okay, great!’” she says.

And we’ve certainly noticed: just check out how gorgeous Biel looked at the Grammys!

Biel isn’t planning an Oscar dress this year, but that doesn’t mean Stanley is off the hook. Clients Lea Michele and Minka Kelly are attending Sunday’s Vanity Fair afterparty, and while she’s tight-lipped about their looks, she does share her top pick for red carpet undergarments: “The Victoria’s Secret Fabulous Bra is incredible,” she shared at an event for the lingerie superstore in L.A. “You can wear it regular, one shoulder, racer back, strapless and it gives you the lift.”

Though she won’t even dish on which of those necklines we can expect from her clients, she made some general predictions for us. “I feel like there will be a lot of bigger dresses,” she says. “Fuller, with nothing underneath, like Oscar de la Renta last season.”

And like any stylist on a big night, she’s hoping things go smoothly, without incidents like one with Penélope Cruz a few years back. “She was nominated and the dress was not what we thought it was going to be. I lost my mind!” Stanley recalls. “We ran to [everyone] who had a dress left. Thank God Versace had a secret stash.” The result? “It was the most gorgeous dress I’ve ever seen.”

We have a feeling we’ll be repeating those words about a few of her clients on Sunday.

–Raha Lewis

PHOTOS: SEE MORE RED CARPET MOMENTS HERE!

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FDA approves new targeted breast cancer drug

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Food and Drug Administration has approved a first-of-a-kind breast cancer medication that targets tumor cells while sparing healthy ones.

The drug Kadcyla from Roche combines the established drug Herceptin with a powerful chemotherapy drug and a third chemical linking the medicines together. The chemical keeps the cocktail intact until it binds to a cancer cell, delivering a potent dose of anti-tumor poison.

Cancer researchers say the drug is an important step forward because it delivers more medication while reducing the unpleasant side effects of chemotherapy.

"This antibody goes seeking out the tumor cells, gets internalized and then explodes them from within. So it's very kind and gentle on the patients — there's no hair loss, no nausea, no vomiting," said Dr. Melody Cobleigh of Rush University Medical Center. "It's a revolutionary way of treating cancer."

Cobleigh helped conduct the key studies of the drug at the Chicago facility.

The FDA approved the new treatment for about 20 percent of breast cancer patients with a form of the disease that is typically more aggressive and less responsive to hormone therapy. These patients have tumors that overproduce a protein known as HER-2. Breast cancer is the second most deadly form of cancer in U.S. women, and is expected to kill more than 39,000 Americans this year, according to the National Cancer Institute.

The approval will help Roche's Genentech unit build on the blockbuster success of Herceptin, which has long dominated the breast cancer marketplace. The drug had sales of roughly $6 billion last year.

Genentech said Friday that Kadcyla will cost $9,800 per month, compared to $4,500 per month for regular Herceptin. The company estimates a full course of Kadcyla, about nine months of medicine, will cost $94,000.

FDA scientists said they approved the drug based on company studies showing Kadcyla delayed the progression of breast cancer by several months. Researchers reported last year that patients treated with the drug lived 9.6 months before death or the spread of their disease, compared with a little more than six months for patients treated with two other standard drugs, Tykerb and Xeloda.

Overall, patients taking Kadcyla lived about 2.6 years, compared with 2 years for patients taking the other drugs.

FDA specifically approved the drug for patients with advanced breast cancer who have already been treated with Herceptin and taxane, a widely used chemotherapy drug. Doctors are not required to follow FDA prescribing guidelines, and cancer researchers say the drug could have great potential in patients with earlier forms of breast cancer

Kadcyla will carry a boxed warning, the most severe type, alerting doctors and patients that the drug can cause liver toxicity, heart problems and potentially death. The drug can also cause severe birth defects and should not be used by pregnant women.

Kadcyla was developed by South San Francisco-based Genentech using drug-binding technology licensed from Waltham, Mass.-based ImmunoGen. The company developed the chemical that keeps the drug cocktail together and is scheduled to receive a $10.5 million payment from Genentech on the FDA decision. The company will also receive additional royalties on the drug's sales.

Shares of ImmunoGen Inc. rose 2 cents to $14.32 in afternoon trading. The stock has ttraded in a 52-wek range of $10.85 to $18.10.

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Investors face another Washington deadline

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors face another Washington-imposed deadline on government spending cuts next week, but it's not generating the same level of fear as two months ago when the "fiscal cliff" loomed large.

Investors in sectors most likely to be affected by the cuts, like defense, seem untroubled that the budget talks could send stocks tumbling.

Talks on the U.S. budget crisis began again this week leading up to the March 1 deadline for the so-called sequestration when $85 billion in automatic federal spending cuts are scheduled to take effect.

"It's at this point a political hot button in Washington but a very low level investor concern," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. The fight pits President Barack Obama and fellow Democrats against congressional Republicans.

Stocks rallied in early January after a compromise temporarily avoided the fiscal cliff, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index <.spx> has risen 6.3 percent since the start of the year.

But the benchmark index lost steam this week, posting its first week of losses since the start of the year. Minutes on Wednesday from the last Federal Reserve meeting, which suggested the central bank may slow or stop its stimulus policy sooner than expected, provided the catalyst.

National elections in Italy on Sunday and Monday could also add to investor concern. Most investors expect a government headed by Pier Luigi Bersani to win and continue with reforms to tackle Italy's debt problems. However, a resurgence by former leader Silvio Berlusconi has raised doubts.

"Europe has been in the last six months less of a topic for the stock market, but the problems haven't gone away. This may bring back investor attention to that," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

OPTIONS BULLS TARGET GAINS

The spending cuts, if they go ahead, could hit the defense industry particularly hard.

Yet in the options market, bulls were targeting gains in Lockheed Martin Corp , the Pentagon's biggest supplier.

Calls on the stock far outpaced puts, suggesting that many investors anticipate the stock to move higher. Overall options volume on the stock was 2.8 times the daily average with 17,000 calls and 3,360 puts traded, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert.

"The upside call buying in Lockheed solidifies the idea that option investors are not pricing in a lot of downside risk in most defense stocks from the likely impact of sequestration," said Jared Woodard, a founder of research and advisory firm condoroptions.com in Forest, Virginia.

The stock ended up 0.6 percent at $88.12 on Friday.

If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement on reducing the U.S. budget deficit in the next few days, a sequester would include significant cuts in defense spending. Companies such as General Dynamics Corp and Smith & Wesson Holding Corp could be affected.

General Dynamics Corp shares rose 1.2 percent to $67.32 and Smith & Wesson added 4.6 percent to $9.18 on Friday.

EYES ON GDP DATA, APPLE

The latest data on fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is expected on Thursday, and some analysts predict an upward revision following trade data that showed America's deficit shrank in December to its narrowest in nearly three years.

U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, according to an earlier government estimate, but analysts said there was no reason for panic, given that consumer spending and business investment picked up.

Investors will be looking for any hints of changes in the Fed's policy of monetary easing when Fed Chairman Ben Bernake speaks before congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Shares of Apple will be watched closely next week when the company's annual stockholders' meeting is held.

On Friday, a U.S. judge handed outspoken hedge fund manager David Einhorn a victory in his battle with the iPhone maker, blocking the company from moving forward with a shareholder vote on a controversial proposal to limit the company's ability to issue preferred stock.

(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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India Ink: Can Doordarshan’s New Look Attract Profits?

A Doordarshan newscast from the late 1990s.

After it became the first TV channel in India in 1959, the public broadcaster Doordarshan enjoyed a monopoly on viewership for decades. Even after the government opened the airwaves to private players in 1992, Doordarshan enjoyed a 90 percent share of the audience in the 1990s and had no reason to take the threat of competition seriously.

Twenty years later, its rivals have not only caught up, but they have surpassed Doordarshan in terms of revenue. In the late 1990s, advertisers began to see Doordarshan, which dominates coverage in rural areas, as catering to only the lowest socioeconomic classes, and the public broadcaster slipped even further after an accounting scandal. Since then, Doordarshan has never turned a profit, and some media industry observers have even declared Doordarshan dead.

But Jawhar Sircar, chief executive of Prasar Bharati, the autonomous organization that includes Doordarshan and All India Radio, is betting that a complete overhaul of its TV programs, in both format and content, will draw the viewers that Doordarshan has lost to private satellite channels.

There is only one formula for success, said Mr. Sircar: “You bring out a good product, spend money, put in taste, autonomy and the right professionals, you will get the right product. You have the right product, you will get the right revenues,” he said.

Revenues are sorely needed at the government-financed broadcaster. According to the last five-year Broadcast Plan, which ended in March 2012, the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting spent 122 billion rupees ($2.2 billion) of taxpayers’ money to run Prasar Bharti, which generated only 60 billion rupees in revenue over the same period. That means a loss of 62 billion rupees, or more than $1 billion, over the five years.

Prasar Bharti accounts for about 60 percent of Ministry of Information and Broadcasting’s budget, and Doordarshan takes about half that amount, raising the rest of the money it needs through advertising.

Reliable data on Doordarshan’s viewership is difficult to find because the company that reports ratings, Television Audience Measurement, covers only satellite channels, and Doordarshan’s network, which now has 37 channels and four affiliated channels, is largely terrestrial. Doordarshan has sued Television Audience Measurement, accusing it of under-reporting its audience and costing the broadcaster advertising revenue.

The biggest move for Mr. Sircar, who took over in March 2012, was to push aside the appointed bureaucrats who ran operations even though they had no media experience. For the first time in its history, Doordarshan’s news channel, known as DD News, has hired several news professionals who have worked with CNN, Bloomberg and BBC for its board. DD News also poached top anchors at major Indian channels like NDTV and Times Now.

“This new team is one of the best DD has ever seen,” said Rajiv Mehrotra, managing trustee of the nonprofit Public Service Broadcasting Trust, referring to Doordarshan. “They have ensured that Prasar Bharati, especially DD, is breathing again.”

The main focus of the makeover is Doordarshan’s prime-time news program, “News Night,” which now tackles controversial topics – a marked change at a network that has been criticized for allowing the government to shape its media coverage in the past. The last time Doordarshan went through an overhaul was in 2003, a year before the national elections, and the Bharatiya Janata Party-controlled central government ordered Doordarshan to downplay certain events, like the deadly 2002 riots in Gujarat, a B.J.P. stronghold.

“DD News has always been known for dry reporting on government affairs,” said Paranjoy Guha Thakurta, an independent journalist who has worked with the public broadcaster.

On Wednesday night, DD News officially introduced its retooled show with a discussion on the state of the Indian TV news media and the role a public broadcaster should play, led by anchors already well known for their work at other channels, which lent the program a gravitas that had been missing when newsreaders used to present the news.

Given that this latest revamp also comes a year before national elections, many in the media industry are closely watching Doordarshan for any evidence of government meddling. Manish Tiwari, the information and broadcasting minister, promised at a news conference earlier this month that “this time, the government would keep an arm’s length from content and presentation of DD.”

But Rajiv Mehrotra, a longtime TV producer for Doordarshan, said Prasar Bharati’s “identity crisis” may limit the scope of the new changes.

“Prasar Bharati has to stay on the right side of the government as it gets a substantial monetary help from them, and it cannot go whole hog like the privately owned channels do,” he added.

Next in line for a makeover is the early morning show, with sharper reporting and market analysis planned, and then DD National, the entertainment channel, and DD Urdu.

On the technical side, Doordarshan will change from analog to digital transmitters, which will allow for enhanced picture quality, spectrum efficiency and multichannel transmission from a single transmitter. Other technological changes will allow Doordarshan to split screens so that more than one person can be shown on air, something private news channels have long been able to do.

Mr. Sircar also put the network’s outside broadcasting vans to use so that reporters could do live reports outside the studio. “We never used our O.B. vans. It was such a waste of our resources,” he said.

DD News is also getting a new, more polished look. At his office in New Delhi, Mr. Sircar pointed at two large TV screens, which displayed the new DD News format on one screen and an NDTV 24×7 format on the other. Both screens had four boxes with an expert in each one discussing swine flu in Delhi.

“See the similarity?” he asked. “There used to be a miserable green board behind a sleepy anchor on DD News before. We have changed the color scheme to make it in tune with the younger generation.”

While there may be a similarity in form and presentation between the private channels and DD News, there will never be a similarity in content, pledged Mr. Sircar. “We will stick to the ideals of public service broadcasting and never sensationalize news,” he said.

In the current five-year Broadcast Plan, which ends in March 2017, the government has agreed to raise the amount it gives Prasar Bharati to 132 billion rupees. Whether its faith in Mr. Sircar is rewarded, however, is uncertain.

“Now is the time,” said Mr. Thakurta, the independent journalist. “DD can become the Indian version of the BBC or Al Jazeera or just a mouthpiece of those in authority. Only time will tell.”

---

This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: February 22, 2013

"An earlier version of this article misstated the year of the Gujarat riots, which happened in 2002, not 2003. "

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Josh Brolin & Diane Lane: Inside Their Up-and-Down Marriage

By Dahvi Shira

02/22/2013 at 07:30 AM EST

Diane Lane and Josh Brolin

Steve Granitz/Wireimage

Josh Brolin and Diane Lane's eight-year marriage is ending in divorce, but the road wasn't always rocky for the occasionally tumultuous pair.

"We're very similar in that celebrity is not a necessity," Brolin, 45, told PEOPLE in 2003, after meeting his soon-to-be-bride, 48, the previous year through stepmom Barbra Streisand. "Everything is easy."

The simplicity seemingly continued for Brolin and his beauty, who wed the following year in a ceremony at the actor's central California ranch.

Though there was a bit of a rocky start to their marriage, the pair got on track in 2005. As Lane told PEOPLE at the time, "I feel much better having a strong man with me who makes me feel embraced and secure. It's wonderful."

With her first marriage to actor Christopher Lambert behind her, Lane went on to say, "I wasn't going to go relationship shopping with my young daughter. I didn't want her to get attached to something that wasn't going to last."

In 2008, Lane praised Brolin, telling Redbook: "It's just invigorating to be around him. Josh completes me because I'm so attracted to his otherness."

On Thursday, reps confirmed the pair split, with a source telling PEOPLE, "They've been separated for several months. This was a hard decision for both of them to make. They were together for 11 years, the relationship just ran its course."

News of the breakup came almost two months after Brolin was held for public intoxication just before midnight on New Year's Eve 2013. Released without charge, the actor was spotted without his wedding ring the following day, donning sunglasses, in Venice, Calif., where he seemed unfazed by the trouble as he ate with a male friend at Sauce on Hampton.

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Flu shot doing poor job of protecting older people

ATLANTA (AP) — It turns out this year's flu shot is doing a startlingly dismal job of protecting older people, the most vulnerable age group.

The vaccine is proving only 9 percent effective in those 65 and older against the harsh strain of the flu that is predominant this season, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.

Health officials are baffled as to why this is so. But the findings help explain why so many older people have been hospitalized with the flu this year.

Despite the findings, the CDC stood by its recommendation that everyone over 6 months get flu shots, the elderly included, because some protection is better than none, and because those who are vaccinated and still get sick may suffer less severe symptoms.

"Year in and year out, the vaccine is the best protection we have," said CDC flu expert Dr. Joseph Bresee.

Overall, across the age groups studied, the vaccine's effectiveness was found to be a moderate 56 percent, which means those who got a shot have a 56 percent lower chance of winding up at the doctor with the flu. That is somewhat worse than what has been seen in other years.

For those 65 and older, the vaccine was only 27 percent effective against the three strains it is designed to protect against, the worst level in about a decade. It did a particularly poor job against the tough strain that is causing more than three-quarters of the illnesses this year.

It is well known that flu vaccine tends to protect younger people better than older ones. Elderly people have weaker immune systems that don't respond as well to flu shots, and they are more vulnerable to the illness and its complications, including pneumonia.

But health officials said they don't know why this year's vaccine did so poorly in that age group.

One theory, as yet unproven, is that older people's immune systems were accustomed to strains from the last two years and had more trouble switching gears to handle this year's different, harsh strain.

The preliminary data for senior citizens is less than definitive. It is based on fewer than 300 people scattered among five states.

But it will no doubt surprise many people that the effectiveness is that low, said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota infectious-disease expert who has tried to draw attention to the need for a more effective flu vaccine.

Among infectious diseases, flu is considered one of the nation's leading killers. On average, about 24,000 Americans die each flu season, according to the CDC.

This flu season started in early December, a month earlier than usual, and peaked by the end of year. Hospitalization rates for people 65 and older have been some of the highest in a decade, at 146 per 100,000 people.

Flu viruses tend to mutate more quickly than others, so a new vaccine is formulated each year to target the strains expected to be the major threats. CDC officials have said that in formulating this year's vaccine, scientists accurately anticipated the strains that are circulating this season.

Because of the guesswork involved, scientists tend to set a lower bar for flu vaccine. While childhood vaccines against diseases like measles are expected to be 90 or 95 percent effective, a flu vaccine that's 60 to 70 percent effective in the U.S. is considered pretty good. By that standard, this year's vaccine is OK.

For senior citizens, a flu vaccine is considered pretty good if it's in the 30 to 40 percent range, said Dr. Arnold Monto, a University of Michigan flu expert.

A high-dose version of the flu shot was recently made available for those 65 and older, but the new study was too small to show whether that has made a difference.

The CDC estimates are based on about 2,700 people who got sick in December and January. The researchers traced back to see who had gotten shots and who hadn't. An earlier, smaller study put the vaccine's overall effectiveness at 62 percent, but other factors that might have influenced that figure weren't taken into account.

The CDC's Bresee said there is a danger in providing preliminary results because it may result in people doubting — or skipping — flu shots. But the figures were released to warn older people who got shots that they may still get sick and shouldn't ignore any serious flu-like symptoms, he said.

___

Online:

CDC report: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr

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Stock futures rise after HP earnings, German data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures rose on Friday, indicating the S&P 500 may halt a two-day losing skid, boosted by positive economic data from Europe and better-than-expected earnings from Hewlett-Packard.

The S&P 500 <.spx> has dropped 1.9 percent over the past two sessions, its worst two-day drop since early November, putting the index on pace for its first weekly decline of the year. The retreat was triggered by minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting released earlier in the week which suggested stimulus measures may end earlier than thought.

Still, the index is up more than 5 percent for the year and has held the 1,500 support level.

Hewlett-Packard Co climbed 4.7 percent to $17.90 in premarket trading after the No. 1 personal computer maker's quarterly revenue and forecasts beat Wall Street expectations as it continued to cut costs under CEO Meg Whitman's turnaround plan.

The German Ifo business climate indicator for February rose to 107.4, its best one-month rise in more than two years, boosting optimism after Thursday's disappointing PMI data stoked concerns over the euro zone economy.

S&P 500 futures rose 6.4 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 28 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 10.5 points.

Insurer American International Group Inc reported fourth-quarter results that beat analysts' expectations, although Chief Executive Robert Benmosche said some employee bonuses will be smaller this year because the company did not meet all of its performance targets. Shares advanced 3.8 percent to $38.68 in premarket trading.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd rose 4.5 percent to $9.90 in premarket trade after the chipmaker forecast results this quarter that were largely above analysts' expectations as it gained market share in the hard-disk drive and flash-storage businesses.

Fellow chipmaker Texas Instruments Inc raised its quarterly dividend by a third and said it would buy back an additional $5 billion in stock.

According to Thomson Reuters data through Thursday morning, of 427 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results, 69.3 percent have exceeded analysts' expectations, compared with a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters.

Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to have risen 5.9 percent, according to the data, above a 1.9 percent forecast at the start of the earnings season.

European shares advanced after the better-than-expected German survey, with the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> up 1.1 percent. <.eu/>

Asian shares recouped some of the previous session's steep falls as investors reassessed concerns that the Federal Reserve may end its ultra-soft monetary policy earlier than expected, but weak U.S. and European data capped Friday's recovery.

(Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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Car Bomb in Damascus Kills Dozens, Opposition Says

Sana/European Pressphoto Agency

An injured man was carried near the site of a car bomb explosion in Damascus on Thursday.

In renewed violence reaching the center of the Syrian capital, a car bomb exploded in Damascus on Thursday near the headquarters of President Bashar al-Assad’s ruling party, killing more than two dozen people, mainly civilians and but also including security forces, according to opposition sources.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an anti-Assad group based in Britain that has a network of contacts in Syria, reported that at least 31 people were killed by the bomb in the neighborhood of Mazraa.

Syrian state television said two children were wounded, while Al Ikhbariya, a pro-government television channel, showed footage of two dead bodies and body parts in a park.

The area where the bomb exploded was near the headquarters of Mr. Assad’s ruling Baath Party and the Russian embassy. State television and the Syrian Observatory also said that mortar shells exploded near the Syrian Army General Command in the center of the capital, but there were no reported casualties.

The strikes were the latest to extend to the heart of the Syrian capital.

Reports this week appeared to show that rebel shells have reached new areas in Damascus.

Both state media and opposition activists reported on Wednesday that mortar rounds had hit the Tishreen sports stadium in the downtown neighborhood of Baramkeh. The state news agency, SANA, said the explosion killed an athlete from the Homs-based soccer team Al Wathba as he was practicing.

Government forces hit a rebel command center in a suburb east of the capital on Wednesday, injuring a founder of the Liwaa al-Islam brigade, Sheik Zahran Alloush, the brigade said in a statement.

On Tuesday, activists reported that up to seven mortar rounds had been fired by fighters of the Free Syrian Army toward Mr. Assad’s Tishreen Palace in Damascus.

There were no immediate reports of casualties, and it was not known whether Mr. Assad was there at the time. The palace, surrounded by a park, is in a wealthy area that has largely been insulated from the insurgency and it lies less than a mile from the main presidential palace.

Syrian rebels are entrenched in suburbs south and east of the capital, but they have been unable to push far into the center, although they strike the area with occasional mortars and increasingly frequent car bombs.

Such indiscriminate attacks however risk killing passersby, exposing the rebels to charges that they are careless with civilian life and property. Many Damascus residents are undecided about taking sides and fear their ancient city will be ravaged like Aleppo and other urban centers to the north.

At the same time, the government has decimated pro-rebel suburbs with air strikes and artillery, leaving vast areas depopulated or terrorized.

Fighting continued also for control of the main civilian airport in Aleppo on Wednesday.

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